Improving urban seismic risk estimates for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, through incorporating recently gained geological knowledge of hazards

Abstract Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This is exacerbated by city expansion, may obscure signs of faulting. Here, we estimate Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due realistic earthquake scenarios based historic earthquakes in region an improved knowledge fault sources. We use previous literature mapping, combined with new high-resolution digital elevation models identify characterise faults that a Bishkek. then (ground shaking), damage residential buildings distribution losses (economical cost fatalities) using Global Earthquake Model OpenQuake engine. model historical events hypothetical variety could plausibly host significant earthquakes. includes proximal, recognised, as well under folding north satellite DEMs. find potential nearest Bishkek—Issyk Ata, Shamsi Tunduk, Chonkurchak northern fault—would cause most city. An Mw 7.5 Issyk Ata potentially 7900 ± 2600 completely damaged buildings, further 16,400 2000 2400 1500 fatalities. It vital properly identify, reduce uncertainty modelling 6.5 instead 6.0 would result 37% more 48%